Winter temperatures may be on their way

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Well, it was winter last weekend for sure. Clouds on Saturday, temperatures approaching 32 ° … it was in fact a typical day at the end of December here. Yesterday was a little better because the sun helped the cause and today we are moderating again. But the last few days it felt more like winter.

It doesn’t look like winter though. True, winter begins at 9:59 a.m. Tuesday. All in all, the week doesn’t seem too cold and yes we will be doing another run to 70 degrees on Christmas Eve with a probable record at this point. Crazy. If we make it over 70 on Christmas Eve, it will be the third day in over 70 in December, and this has not happened before in our records dating back to the late 1880s!

So regarding the snow situation …

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Provide:

Today: Sunny and pleasant by December standards. Peaks in the upper 40s.

Tonight: Fresh but seasonal with lows in the lower 20s.

Tomorrow: Pretty much the same really.

Wednesday: No change with highs around 50 degrees.

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Discussion:

So some people ask: where is winter?

That’s a good question at this point. Temperatures this month are over 9 degrees above the December average. If the month ended today, it would be the third hottest December in Kansas City weather history. But obviously there are still 12 data points to enter, including today. I don’t think we’ll finish third, but it will almost certainly be one of the hottest December 10ths.

As of the 1st to yesterday, the average temperature of 43.7 degrees is the sixth warmest start of December.

So yes, people are wondering where is winter.

It certainly doesn’t show up in the snow totals around the area, or in the plains really south of Interstate 80.

It’s a fairly large void in the immediate area, and it points to the south. Even Chicago is doing something today regarding the lack of snow this season, with more days to add.

It’s pretty crazy for Chicago.

When looking at more granular data for the entire United States, let’s just say it’s not exactly “festive.”

Data via PRISM

It hasn’t gotten wet either, and that’s slowly turning into a “thing” for farming interests here.

Data via PRISM

This “thing” is that we really haven’t had significant humidity since November 10th, and no significant humidity (more than 1/2 inch) is happening for at least 7-10 days, it seems. . It would take us almost seven weeks without reloading the soil too much. As the soils are not yet frozen, they can accept and still soak up moisture.

Again, this is a developing “thing” that needs to be watched.

So where is winter? Is there something to come?

Last week we talked about how some “teleconnects” were pointing to HARD to get cold. Yet the models struggled (and to some extent still do) to combat this cold. There are signs, however, that models may catch up with teleconnects (here is the definition of teleconnects: Changes in the atmosphere at one location can affect weather conditions over 1,000 miles away. They call these models teleconnections. … Teleconnection patterns are caused by changes in the way air moves through the atmosphere. Changes can last from a few weeks to several months. via UCAR)

I also showed you last week this really cold, relative to average mass of air that basically occupies the western part of Canada and somehow continues to fester over there, waiting to be released to the States. -United.

There you go… next week… in western and southwestern Canada… just sitting there and pissing while we stay pretty sweet

So, in a sense, we’re sort of waiting for a change in the jet stream that would pull that colder air south to reach the area. I would be shocked if this change didn’t happen in early January and the models maybe catch up to that potential now. Notice the onset of cold weather in the western United States and the plains: The map below is a five-day average from the end of January 29 to 3.

That’s still an average of five days. When you look at the more detailed part of it, you can see how the colder air is unleashed around New Year’s Eve.

It would be cold, that’s for sure. The GFS gets there too, but around 3-4 days later than the EURO.

Anyway, my general feeling is that the first two weeks of January will be colder (compared to average) than the last two weeks of January. It can also be very cold for a few days.

So what about the snow situation?

Well it’s a bit safer, but depending on where I think we’re going to be for the first couple of weeks of January, I can’t see how we won’t get snowpack because of this. cold. The model data at least captures somewhat the potential for this increase (in my mind) in snow risk.

The following graph (s) show the probability that the region will experience at least an inch of snow by about January 3. These are the EURO and GFS packages. Drag to the left for the GFS model and to the right for the EURO representation:

So solidly with a 30-40% chance, which is better than they’ve been showing for a while really. Yet looking at the same idea except for 3 inches or more… well, let’s not get carried away at this point.

Not really too exciting for the Kansas City area.

How can this be? It may very well be cold, but if we have a dry flow up high (that is, if that flow is coming from the northwest or the north) it is pretty darn cold, but it’s not wet.

Perhaps a well-placed mower or disturbance can change this potential snow situation. If the air is going to be cold, we get more of a possible down factor in the falling snow, so less moisture can still build up in the snow department to some extent. However, a setup like this is about 10 days before it’s even confidently chosen.

That, at least for me, sort of made the marks of the first two weeks of January more active before it ended and we were out of the cold for the last half of the month. So, I think between the coming cold and a few setups, we get our first snowpack by mid-January.

OK that’s all for today. The featured photo comes from Tiffany Lanier. It was a fairly “cold” full moon last night that rose.

Joe



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